By Parisa Hafezi, Laila Bassam, Suleiman Al-Khalidi and Dan Williams
DUBAI (Reuters) – Hounded by months of lethal Israeli assaults in Syria, Iranian army commanders thought it protected to convene a top-level assembly inside Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus, believing it protected by worldwide norms shielding diplomatic missions, in line with a dozen Iranian, Syrian and regional officers.
They have been unsuitable.
An airstrike on the compound killed seven Iranian officers on Monday – amongst them one among Iran’s high troopers, Brigadier Basic Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander within the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). It was the boldest, and deadliest, in a sequence of assaults which have picked off Iranian officers in Syria since December.
Blamed by Tehran on Israel, the assault was a uncommon army strike on diplomatic premises wherever on this planet and drew swift condemnation from the UN and EU. Analysts view it as a major escalation in a wider Israeli marketing campaign to degrade the affect carved out by Iran in Syria over the past decade.
Zahedi had arrived in Syria a day or so earlier than the assault and was staying on the embassy compound with two different senior commanders, in line with an Iranian supply who, like others on this story, requested not be recognized due to the sensitivity of the problem.
The three males have been in Syria to debate operational logistics and coordination, the supply mentioned, with out elaborating.
Zahedi was a high determine within the Guards’ Quds Pressure, which funnels Iranian assist to allies across the area, together with to Lebanon’s Hezbollah. He was essentially the most senior Revolutionary Guards determine to be killed since a U.S. drone strike on Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad 4 years in the past, and the style of the strike despatched shockwaves throughout a area already roiled by Israel’s conflict in Gaza.
“In my opinion, it is with out precedent,” mentioned Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, including he couldn’t recall any state straight concentrating on one other’s diplomatic presence on this means.
“The IRGC officers probably thought they have been protected as long as they remained within the diplomatic compound,” he mentioned. “I can not think about any IRGC officers really feel notably protected in the intervening time.”
With Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowing revenge, the fallout dangers additional escalating the battle that has unfold by way of the Center East because the eruption of the Gaza conflict in October.
Nevertheless, two Iranian officers indicated Tehran wouldn’t veer from the strategy it has adopted since October of avoiding direct battle with Israel and the USA, whereas concurrently backing allies who’ve hit Israel, U.S. troops, and Pink Sea transport in assaults they are saying goal to assist Gaza.
A type of officers, a senior supply, mentioned Tehran was compelled to provide a severe response to forestall Israel from repeating such assaults or escalating. However the stage of retaliation can be restricted and geared toward deterrence, the official mentioned, with out elaborating.
The general public relations workplace of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declined to remark.
Israel, which hardly ever feedback on its Syria operations, has not declared its duty for Monday’s assault, which levelled the constructing the place the commanders have been gathered adjoining to the principle Iranian embassy constructing. The Israeli army spokesperson’s workplace declined to remark for this story.
Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Center East and North Africa programme at Chatham Home, mentioned the assault was the newest to point out the exact nature of Israeli intelligence in Syria and the broader area. She famous a Jan. 2 Israeli strike had killed a senior chief of Palestinian militant group Hamas in Lebanon, the stronghold of Iranian-backed motion, Hezbollah. Each teams are a part of Iran’s regional ‘Axis of Resistance’.
“We have now seen very high-level killings of officers with administration duty throughout the community,” she mentioned, including the newest assault concentrating on Zahedi “speaks to Israel’s broader goal of attempting to degrade the operational capacities of the Axis of Resistance over the past six months”.
Simply final week, Israel mounted one among its deadliest strikes in months in Syria, killing 33 Syrians and 6 Hezbollah fighters, safety sources mentioned. Israel has additionally hit Hezbollah arduous in Lebanon throughout hostilities because the Gaza conflict started in October, killing some 250 of its fighters together with senior commanders.
Israel launched its invasion of Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel by Hamas, which killed 1,200 individuals and captured 253 hostages. Some 33,000 Palestinians have since been killed in practically six months of warfare, in line with medical officers within the enclave
A ‘RARE OPPORTUNITY’
An Iranian safety supply mentioned Iran would alter its techniques in mild of Monday’s strike, with out giving additional particulars. A regional supply near Iran mentioned there was now not any safe place in Syria after Israel had transgressed diplomatic norms.
Reuters reported in February that the Revolutionary Guards had scaled again deployments of senior officers in Syria on account of the wave of Israeli strikes in opposition to Revolutionary Guard commanders. Sources mentioned on the time the Guards had raised considerations with Syrian authorities that data leaks from throughout the Syrian safety forces performed an element in these strikes.
Within the wake of Monday’s assault, the Iranian safety supply mentioned Iran was investigating whether or not Zahedi’s actions have been leaked to Israel.
Iran has deployed officers and allied militias to Syria to assist President Bashar al-Assad through the conflict that started in 2011. The Syrian authorities say they serve within the capability of advisers on the invitation of Damascus.
Raz Zimmt, a researcher on the Alliance Middle for Iranian Research at Tel Aviv College, mentioned Zahedi had performed a major position “managing the entrenchment of Iranian exercise each in Syria and Lebanon”. He can be arduous to switch attributable to “his lengthy expertise and his lengthy presence in Syria”, he mentioned, however the principle significance of the assault was to point out that nowhere was out of bounds.
“I believe that maybe the extra necessary challenge is for Israel to relay the message to Iran, saying that Iran can now not escape the implications of its main position within the coordination of this Iranian axis within the area,” Zimmt mentioned.
An Israeli official, talking on situation of anonymity, declined to substantiate Israel’s involvement in Monday’s assault however mentioned that the congregation of a number of senior Iranian officers in a single location was extremely uncommon.
“Whoever did this clearly didn’t wish to cross up what seems to have been a really, very uncommon alternative,” he mentioned. “That is not one thing a rustic at conflict would cross up.”
U.N. Secretary Basic Antonio Guterres condemned the assault on the Iranian diplomatic premises, saying “the precept of the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises and personnel have to be revered in all instances and in all circumstances in accordance with worldwide regulation”, his spokesperson mentioned. The European Union echoed the assertion.
Nevertheless, the Israeli official mentioned the identities of the lifeless amounted to “an admission {that a} diplomatic mission in a third-party nation is getting used as a army headquarters”.
The USA has mentioned it has not confirmed the standing of the constructing struck in Damascus, however that it could be involved if it was a diplomatic facility. Washington warned Iran on Tuesday to not retaliate in opposition to it over the assault, telling the U.N. Safety Council it had no prior warning of the strike.
A Syrian army intelligence officer mentioned the realm close to the embassy included buildings beforehand utilized by Israel to observe and plant gadgets, and that Israel had intensified efforts to develop human intelligence in latest months.
Qasem Mohebali, former Director-Basic for the Center East and North Africa at Iran’s International Ministry who relies in Iran, referred to as the strike a turning level in Israel’s assaults in opposition to Iran’s presence in Syria.
In an interview with the Iranian information web site Jamaran, he mentioned Israel “had beforehand exercised warning and kept away from concentrating on official and diplomatic Iranian areas”.
However “direct conflict with Israel is under no circumstances in Iran’s curiosity”, he added. “Coming into that area doesn’t simply finish with conflict with Israel; the battle might escalate and contain different gamers similar to the USA,” he mentioned.