By Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s 12-month inflation is forecast to proceed decelerating in September, regardless of the impression of a truckers’ strike, based on a Reuters ballot on Wednesday, whereas expectations for this yr stay secure.
Based on the median forecast from 20 analysts, Colombia’s 12-month inflation will attain 5.83% by way of September, decrease than the 6.12% reported by way of the tip of August, however nonetheless approach above the central financial institution’s long-term goal of three%.
If the median forecast is met, client costs will rise 0.26% in September, much like the 0.25% in the identical month final yr, however larger than the 0% registered in August.
Analysts’ estimates ranged from 0.17% to 0.38%.
In September “the training sector is reactivated by the varsity calendar, whereas we anticipate to see average inflation in the remainder of the sectors,” mentioned Jackeline Pirajan, Scotiabank’s chief economist for Colombia.
She added the impact of the nationwide strike on meals costs was seen on the beguiling of the month however “is fading rapidly.”
The South American nation confronted a four-day truckers’ strike throughout the first week of September in protest of a rise in diesel costs, inflicting meals and gasoline shortages in main cities.
The numerous inflation slowdown has been the primary motive behind the central financial institution board’s discount of its rate of interest by 275 foundation factors since its downward cycle started in December 2023.
On Monday, the financial authority reduce the speed by 50 foundation factors to 10.25%, in a divided vote the place three of the seven board members requested a discount of 75 foundation factors. The remaining 4 had been inclined to stay extra cautious with the intention to management inflation.
These polled now anticipate inflation to finish this yr at 5.6%, nearly unchanged from the 5.61% projected final month, whereas expectations for the tip of 2025 slowed to three.70%, down from 3.75% within the earlier survey.